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Putting Fandom in Focus
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Trailer to Ticket: Can AI Predict Box Office?

Trailer to Ticket: Can AI Predict Box Office?

Amplifying Audience Voices with AI
Amplifying Audience Voices with AI
  • March 11, 2025

Presented by Ben Carlson, EVP and General Manager of Media, Sports, and Entertainment and Julian Highley, SVP Data Science

It’s no secret—AI is transforming the research industry, accelerating speed, efficiency, and insights. At the Media Insights & Engagement Conference, Hollywood’s premier research event, we took the stage to explore AI’s evolving role in entertainment research and its power to predict audience intent to watch movies and streaming series.

AI-powered tools are revolutionizing entertainment research, but the human element remains essential to ensure accuracy. At MarketCast, we are integrating AI into the research process to improve – rather than replace traditional methods of gathering audience insights:

  • Using AI for predictive modeling based on real human responses, not pure synthetic samples.
  • Continuously refining models to reflect cultural trends and pop culture moments.

The result? Faster, cost-effective research without compromising accuracy or audience representation.

All entertainment researchers are feeling the need for speed. The pressure is on to deliver insights faster and more cost-effectively—with more predictiveness. When implemented correctly, AI solutions offer the best of all worlds: speed, predictiveness, precision, and efficiency.

  • Reducing time in field through predictive modeling.
  • Lowering costs by optimizing sampling.
  • Delivering near-real-time insights for agile decision-making.

Background: More than any other industry, Hollywood relies on advertising testing and research to refine creative and drive results. Multiple rounds of iteration ensure storylines and characters resonate with target audiences—and ultimately get them to the theater.

MarketCast has deep roots in the movie industry, testing and researching nearly 80% of all released trailers each year. This fuels a vast database of outcome-driven insights, strengthening our AI-enhanced creative testing. We combined this data and know-how with our new Audience AI solution to predict audience responses to specific movie trailers and gauge intent to watch.

Putting MarketCast Audience AI to the Trailer Test

Analysis: Audience AI leverages MarketCast’s historical ad testing data and fresh survey research from real audiences to train the AI models that predict audience responses. Using Audience AI, we analyzed 30 movie trailers across various genres, from well-known franchises to brand-new content debuting for the first time.

The Result: Our model consistently produced 90%+ accuracy across audiences, confidently predicting audience intent to see the movie in theatres after exposure to the trailer.

This level of precision underscores the power of AI-driven research in delivering actionable, reliable insights for the entertainment industry and beyond.

Contact us to learn more about our approach to AI in advertising testing and research.

CONTACT US TO LEARN MORE

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